Week 3 Start 'Em or Sit 'Em
Nick Mensio dives into the matchups and identifies 25 of his favorite fantasy starts and sits for Week 3.
Start ‘Em or Sit ‘Em is geared toward season-long leagues but can also be used for daily fantasy purposes.
QUARTERBACK
Start of the Week: Kirk Cousins vs. Chargers – Fantasy’s overall QB1 through two weeks, Cousins is coming off his sixth career four-TD game after garbage time heavily contributed to his 364/4 effort in a primetime loss to the Eagles. Only Mac Jones (96), Matthew Stafford (93), and C.J. Stroud (91) have attempted more passes than Cousins’ 88, and only Tua Tagovailoa (715) has thrown for more yards. Cousins is tied with Jordan Love for a league-leading six touchdown passes. Cousins has been in pass-friendly game scripts and projects to be in another one Sunday. Chargers-Vikings easily sports Week 3’s highest total at 54 points. The Bolts are dead last in pass-defense DVOA and 31st in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. Weeks 1 and 2 opposing QBs Tagovailoa and Ryan Tannehill each earned Pro Football Focus’ top passing grade after facing this Chargers defense. Cousins has his flaws, but he’s most comfortable under the home dome at 1 PM ET on Sundays. He’s an easy QB1 start, and I really like Justin Jefferson to score his first touchdown of the season in this one.
Starts
Dak Prescott at Cardinals – Second among all QBs in EPA per play, Prescott just hasn’t had to do much with the Cowboys throttling the division-rival Giants 40-0 in Week 1 and then the Jets 30-10 last Sunday afternoon. When Prescott has had to throw, he’s dazzled with a 71% completion rate and perfect 2:0 TD:INT mark. Arizona is a middling 17th in pass-defense DVOA and 30th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, though a sizable chunk of that production has come by the way of two rushing TDs via Sam Howell and Daniel Jones. The Cowboys should live in the red zone in Week 3, and Prescott leads the league with 15 pass attempts inside the opponent’s 20-yard line. This could quickly become a Tony Pollard game for Dallas, but Prescott should be in favorable passing situations, especially after Cardinals star S Budda Baker (hamstring) was placed on injured reserve following Week 2. Prescott-to-CeeDee Lamb stacks could prove profitable Sunday.
Geno Smith vs. Panthers – Following an ugly Week 1, Smith rebounded with the QB8 performance last Sunday in Detroit, throwing for 328/2, including the game-winning touchdown strike to Tyler Lockett in overtime. Smith is completing 72% of his passes after leading the NFL in completion rate a season ago. He’s ninth in EPA per play. Carolina is fifth in pass-defense DVOA and second in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, but they’ve faced Desmond Ridder and Derek Carr. Going cross-country on a short week after losing to New Orleans Monday night, the Panthers will also be without defensive stalwarts CB Jaycee Horn (hamstring) and LB Shaq Thompson (leg) after they were recently placed on injured reserve. Smith again looks like a solid back-end QB1 option.
Deshaun Watson at Titans – Only Kenny Pickett and Trevor Lawrence have a worse EPA per play through two weeks than Watson, who also comes in near the bottom in completion rate (31st), yards per attempt (30th), and QBR (30th). He’s legitimately been one of the worst quarterbacks through two weeks. Watson, however, is still a top-15 fantasy QB thanks to 11/67/1 rushing. There’s nowhere to go but up from here, and with Nick Chubb (knee) done for the year, the Browns will likely lean into Watson going forward. He catches a Week 3 date with a Tennessee pass funnel that is 23rd in DVOA and 17th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. Only four teams have surrendered more passing yards. Justin Herbert just hung the QB11 on the Titans with a 305/2 afternoon.
Sits
Russell Wilson at Dolphins – Wilson’s overall QB3 week last Sunday was heavily aided by an outlier rushing line (6/56) and a last-second 50-yard TD on a Hail Mary that bounced off several defenders’ hands and right to Brandon Johnson. Without it, Wilson would’ve been the QB18. Through two weeks under Sean Payton, Wilson’s completion rate is up nearly eight percentage points (68.2), but he’s averaging 6.7 YPA if we take away the Johnson touchdown. Wilson will now travel to Miami to face DC Vic Fangio’s aggressive pass defense that had no problems putting the clamps on New England last Sunday night, holding Mac Jones to an anemic 5.5 yards per attempt. The Dolphins are 13th in pass-defense DVOA, seventh in Pro Football Focus’ coverage grades, and 16th in fantasy points allowed to QBs. Denver’s team total of 20.5 points is the 11th-lowest of Week 3. Wilson is more of a mid-range QB2.
Jordan Love vs. Saints – I had Love in this exact same spot last week, but he again threw three more touchdown passes against the Falcons and now enters Week 3 tied with Kirk Cousins for the league lead with six TDs. Love simply can’t keep up this pace with an otherworldly 11.5% touchdown rate on 26 pass attempts per game. Love is averaging 198 passing yards per game, and Green Bay is running the third-fewest plays per contest. New Orleans’ defense has faced the seventh-fewest plays per game. This shapes up as another low-volume passing game for Love. The Saints are third in pass-defense DVOA, fourth in fantasy points allowed to QBs, sixth in pass-rushing at Pro Football Focus, and eighth in PFF’s coverage grades. Fantasy’s overall QB2, Love is merely a two-QB option.
Mac Jones at Jets – Fantasy’s QB7 on the back of a league-high 96 pass attempts, Jones is 29th in yards per attempt (5.7) and has easily the slowest receiving corps in football. JuJu Smith-Schuster is beyond cooked, and Kendrick Bourne is a slowpoke big slot type being fed empty looks down the field. This game’s 37-point total is the lowest of Week 3, and I’m still taking the under. The Jets’ morale has been killed in the wake of Aaron Rodgers’ torn Achilles, but their defense remains truly elite. Only the Cowboys have a better coverage grade at Pro Football Focus. Jones threw just one touchdown and averaged just 220 yards per game in two 2022 meetings with Robert Saleh’s unit.